weekend

[rolltide]

ytd: 56-7-50 +15.87 (stake 145.50)

Brazil Paulista 6:30 Friday

Ituano vs XV de Piracicaba
- Playing on home team tonight who are in better form than away side in relegation battle. Ituano nobody hurt or suspended while XV have 7 starters out. Of the 11 matches they've played this year I've listed the # games that the missing players have been in:
Pedro Paulo (9)
Diego Silva (10)
Diguinho (10)
Bruno Fuso (9)
Cesinha (4)
Jairo (11)
Anderson Lessa (5)

Ituano .75u to win .76u

 

[gobucks]

Can't wait to get your MLS thoughts for the weekend...love that NBC is giving full coverage to tomorrow's action. Like NYRB to get the ship righted to start the day.

 

[rolltide]

Ituano 2-1

ytd: 57-7-50 +16.63 (stake 146.25)

Stoke vs WBA
- Stoke playing some poor football right now but I like them to turn it around at home tomorrow. Offense has been the problem, as usual, but they are 2nd in EPL in set piece goals and WBA only midtable on set piece defense. Last 20 EPL away West Brom have 5 wins...2 over Liverpool and one each against Sunderland (15th), Wigan (18th), and QPR (20th). Stoke just 1-1-2 at home in 2013 but remember this poor string came on the heels of a 17 match home unbeaten streak so they are more than capable at home and really shouldn't be pk against a midtable team like West Brom who have the worst away defense of anyone in top half of the table. Away from home WBA allow the 4th most shots per game and take the 5th least away shots per game

Stoke pk 1u to win .75u

Southampton vs Liverpool
- of course I hate betting on Liverpool matches but the numbers are too good to avoid. Liverpool away from home have 8 straight overs and Soton sitting at 5/6 overs since late January. Soton have scored in 13/15 home in all competitions and Liverpool scored in 15 of last 16 in league and in 8 straight away games. Only United have more away goals than Liverpool's 29 but they also have worst away defense and total defense of any team in top 7. Lpool lead league with nearly 20 shots per game, Soton 9th at 14 per (15 / game at home). In open play Liverpool 2nd with 39 goals, Soton 10th with 25 so this has to translate into enough chances for 3 goals.

Soton/Lpool over 2.5 1u to win .71u

 

[rolltide]

Can't wait to get your MLS thoughts for the weekend...love that NBC is giving full coverage to tomorrow's action. Like NYRB to get the ship righted to start the day.

lines are real tight this weekend. only going to be some smaller bets

 

[nojuice9]

like both your Premier wagers, best of luck.

 

[rolltide]

Seattle vs Portland
- great atmosphere tonight in Seattle with 35-40k fans in this rivalry match. I've really enjoyed watching the Timbers' first two matches as they're playing a terrific attacking style but aren't able to cover well enough in the back to actually win matches. Of course this will be the first match away from home so hard to tell if they will continue a 4-3-3 attack or play more conservatively but that's why the smallish stakes. Seattle could be a bit deflated after such a massive midweek match but they've allowed a goal in all 3 games in 2013 and this Portland attack should net one. I expect a typical rivalry match but hopefully more entertaining than NY/DC or KC/CHI were today.

Sea/Por over 2.5 1.60u to win 1.50u

 

[rolltide]

Mex/MLS double

America + LA Galaxy 2.45u to win 2.50u
- best vs worst in both leagues IMO. San Luis are on as bad of a streak in this league since Indios several years ago and just hard to believe they can take something from America. America 6-2-0 L8 meetings and haven't lost to San Luis in 4 years. LA Galaxy two matches played and two landslide winners so far in 2013 picking up where they left off in preseason. Gals 7-0-1 L8 vs CUSA and have lost just once in 6 years.

 

[rolltide]

10pm Costa Rica

Alajuelense vs Limon
- not really underish teams but sometimes you just have to play the trends and these teams cancel each other out every time they play. In last 6 meetings all have been under 2.5, 5 have gone under 1.5, and a total of 5 goals scored in those 6 games. Go back a bit further and you'll find the under at 9-1 in last 10 h2h

Alajuela/Limon under 2.5 .55u to win .5u

 

[gobucks]

After betting NYRB, KC, and Phil and watching 1 goal in 3 matches I am hesitant, but will follow. If I was a season ticket holder in Chicago I would ask for my money back.....they make Stoke City look like freaking Barca...No goals in 3 matches and they must have had less than 30% possession today. Sporting KC was a good sized wager today for me and I can't believe I lost.

Seattle vs Portland
- great atmosphere tonight in Seattle with 35-40k fans in this rivalry match. I've really enjoyed watching the Timbers' first two matches as they're playing a terrific attacking style but aren't able to cover well enough in the back to actually win matches. Of course this will be the first match away from home so hard to tell if they will continue a 4-3-3 attack or play more conservatively but that's why the smallish stakes. Seattle could be a bit deflated after such a massive midweek match but they've allowed a goal in all 3 games in 2013 and this Portland attack should net one. I expect a typical rivalry match but hopefully more entertaining than NY/DC or KC/CHI were today.

Sea/Por over 2.5 1.60u to win 1.50u

 

[rolltide]

-1.60 Seattle
-2.45 America
soon to be -.55 Alajuela

(what a pathetic rivalry weekend for mls)

ugh

Gladbach vs Hannover
- really think 1-1 is the only loser in this bet (which is bad thought since I just lost two at 1-1 final). see if you can find a trend on Hannover away matches...over, over, over, under, over , over, over, over, over, over, over, over, over. Not only massive trend on reaching 3 goals but they've allowed 2+ in 11 straight and scored in all but 2. Gladbach have scored in 17 straight at home which is every meaningful match in 12/13 season and conceded in 13 of them including 5 straight. Both solid midtable clubs 10 points above relegation but still chasing a return to Europe and h2h is tremendous with 8 overs in last 9 with 41 goals being scored. Only once in those 9 (the only under) did both teams fail to score but since I don't have a bookie with BTS betting the over 2.5 is next best choice

BMG/Hannover over 2.5 2.08u to win 2u

 

[rolltide]

smaller double....

of course loved LA yesterday so no reason to not like them today and will likely place a HC bet later as odds continue to move toward CUSA. double today will be with Chelsea who I rate as a solid 3/1 favorite over Hammers who miss 3 MF (cole, nolan, taylor) against the club with probably the best MF in EPL. Hammers a league-low 9 road goals and allowing nearly 2 road goals per match and just 0-1-6 L7 across town and 1-2-11 in last 14 meetings. Blues could be a bit fatigued and looking ahead to a full two weeks off so staying away from the -1.5

Chelsea/Galaxy 1.5u to win 1.77u

 

[rolltide]

Tottenham vs Fulham

lineups in...Bale, Dembele, Sigurdsson, Parker, Adebayor all starting. No Defoe which is a great thing as he hasn't scored since 2012...would have liked to see Lennon

Spurs over 2.5 in 7 of last 8 overall, 6-1 L7 home, 10-3 L13 at home overall. Berbatov has scored in 25/54 at White Hart Lane and Fulham's 17 away goals are 2nd most from any team outside the top 7 but their 27 conceded is most of anyone in top 12. Over is 5-2 L7 meetings and Spurs at home have scored 3-2-2-1-3-3 in 2013.

Spurs/Fulham over 2.5 1u to win .75u

 

[rolltide]

big odds move in mls...will oppose

FC Dallas pk 1.5u to win 1.32u

 

[rolltide]

Newell's vs River Plate
- Newell's missing top MF or would be a bigger bet. They've been beaten just twice in 25 league matches overall and one of those was using reserve squad to rest regulars. First team will play today as they have no Libertadores match until April and this is the club I expected to win the title. River Plate having great start to season but lost in last 3 trips to NOB and winless in 4 at 0-1-3. River's big scorer, David Trezeguet, is out today along with MF christian ledesma.

NOB pk .68u to win .50u

 

[brokerstip]

what a joke this galaxy game. red card and still can't get one in the net. been watching it and have had a couple chances.

 

[brokerstip]

got that goal; now we need to hold for the last 10'

 

[brokerstip]

unfuckin real

 

[rolltide]

fitting ending to the weekend with CUSA leveling in the 90th minute with 10 men on their only shot of the match...

+0 Stoke
+0.71 Soton
-1.60 Sea
-2.45 America
-0.55 Limon
-2.08 BMG
-1.50 LAG
-1.00 SPurs
+1.32 Dall
+0.50 NOB

3-1-6 -6.65

ytd: 57-7-50 +9.98 (stake 159.43)

 

[gobucks]

MLS killed me this weekend.......the officials just won't enforce the rules allowing poor teams to consistently foul without penalty and making it very hard to score against teams who put numbers behind the ball and just look to defend (and foul)